Frank Sawyer is on a 15 of 24 (63%) UEFA Champions League run -- and he furthers his 13 of 20 (65%) UCL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year at 3 PM ET!
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At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid has won eight of their last ten matches after a 3-0 victory at home against Cadiz in La Liga action on May 4th. Bayern Munich is winless in their last two matches after a 3-1 loss at Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday. These two settled for a 2-2 draw in Munich in their first-leg match last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich blew the opportunity to take a one-goal lead into this second match by fouling Vinicius Junior inside the box which gave him the chance to score his second goal of the match with a penalty kick at the 83rd minute. The Bavarians have been more effective at home where they have lost only twice in the Bundesliga — but they have five losses on the road in domestic play. In the Champions League, Bayern Munich lost at Lazio by a 1-0 score in the Round of 16 — and they lost at Manchester City by a 3-0 score in the Group Stage. They have won only twice in their last nine matches on the road across all competitions with losses during that span — and they do not have a clean sheet on the road in 2024. They have surrendered two or more goals in eight of their last ten matches on the road. Domestically, it has been a disappointing season with Bayer Leverkusen already taking the title — the Bavarians are 15 points behind in second place. Manage Thomas Tuchel announced in February that he will not return to the club. Bayern Munich has demonstrated that is foolish to discount proud teams with talent in European competition — they outclassed Arsenal in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. But something is lacking. This club is not as elite in the buildup as past teams. They struggle in transition defense. Injuries have decimated their backline. They are without Raphael Guerreiro and Dayot Upamecano — and Eric Dier along with Mattias de Ligt are questionable with knocks. Kim Min-Jae is a liability at center back and his two mistakes last week led directly to Los Blancos’ two goals. The Bavarians have struggled against top-tier talent. They were outclassed by a 3-0 score in their showdown against Bayer Leverkusen in February. They lost 2-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund (who advanced to the finals of this tournament yesterday). And they lost to a Man City squad that Real Madrid outlasted in the Quarterfinals of this event last month. Los Blancos dealt with injuries in the first half of the season — and they were giving up 1.12 expected goals (xGA) in La Liga going into 2024. But since January 1st, Real Madrid is holding their domestic opponents to just 0.83 xGA. They have clinched another La Liga title. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is a master in adapting his tactics to his opponent — and he has found the identity of this squad which plays at its best in a passive mid-block defensive approach that attacks in transition. Real Madrid is very tough to beat at home at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu where they have won 15 of their 17 domestic matches at home with no losses. Since January 1st, they have won eight of their nine home matches in La Liga while generating 2.74 expected goals (xG) and surrendering just 0.82 xGA. In their last 12 matches at home in the Champions League, they are unbeaten with nine victories. They get David Alaba back for this match after he was suspended for last week’s contest.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich has not registered a clean sheet in their last 16 matches against Real Madrid. They are winless in their nine previous contests against teams managed by Ancelotti with nine losses and zero clean sheets. The legendary Ancelotti looks to take his sixth team to the Champions League final — and Los Blancos are striving to win their 15th European title. Real Madrid lost in the final to Man City last year — they will be confident this afternoon that they are destined to return. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
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